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March in Review
Data from March 1-31
We await the BLS release of the March CPI tomorrow, but inflation hawks do have cause for optimism. Key signals pointed to a slowing labor market last month, with March posting the lowest monthly job growth since 2021. Though unemployment continued to decline from February and March (settling at 3.5%), wage growth slowed to 4.2%—the slowest rate of increase since June 2021.
In most of the markets we study, demand and supply trends appear relatively healthy within seasonally-expected fluctuation. Against a backdrop of decreasing unemployment, continued (albeit slowing) wage growth, and inflation coming to heel, purchase demand appears to have rebounded in March (with the closed to original list price ratio beginning to march back towards 1). Additionally, the limited supply of for-sale inventory in most markets we analyze has kept prices stabilized. For a deeper look at March's supply and demand signals in top SFR markets, read on.
NOTES ON THE DATA SET
Aggregate market data for the month in review (March 1-31) comes from 10 of our operating markets: Nashville, Charlotte, Atlanta, Birmingham, Huntsville, Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, Kansas City, and Greensboro. Inventory and price data include single-family residences, townhomes, and duplexes with 2+ bathrooms and 3+ bedrooms priced between $100-$500K.
Total active listings dropped in March to the same level as March 2022, although we expect to see inventory begin to increase next month from its seasonal trough. (San Antonio, the anomaly in our market spotlights, showed inventory already increasing last month.) While most individual markets we analyze showed fairly consistent inventory levels across price bands (from $100-500k), the majority of active listings in both Atlanta and Kansas City are concentrated in the $300k-400k range.
Months' supply of inventory has continued to decrease along with total active listings, although the current supply is still higher than March 2022. From our analysis of individual markets, we saw months' supply of inventory increase in both Atlanta and Kansas City as list price increased, although in aggregate, months supply of inventory in both markets declined.
Median days on market stopped declining in March across the markets we analyze, and within markets, list price showed a strong influence on days on market. For example, both Atlanta and Kansas City saw higher median days on market for houses between $100k-200k and $400k-500k, the lowest and highest price bands we track.
Average closed-to-original list price moved slightly higher in March, although it still hovers below 100%. Among our market spotlights, Kansas City is the only market that posted a higher average close price than original list price, and the ratio held steady across homes at different price levels.
Market data brought to you by the Market IQ team
Our team is here with the data you need to make your own assessment of this shifting landscape. For in-depth analysis or a complimentary strategy consultation, please reach out to Picket's Head of Business Growth, James Newgent.
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