The pace of hiring slowed in February, and with more workers entering the job market, unemployment ticked slightly higher (+.02%). We await the BLS' release of the CPI today and consider whether this moderate cooling will be enough to affect Chairman Powell's next moves.
Housing sector news came in last week, too, with our friends at the NHRC reporting that the share of single-family rental homes in both the rental housing market and the broader U.S. single-family housing market declined between 2011 and 2021 (-1.60% and -1.40%, respectively). Realtor.com, meanwhile, looked at household formation, housing starts, and home sales, and determined the U.S. is short 6.5 million single-family homes.
Against this backdrop, we have not been surprised to see the housing market waver towards a seller's-biased environment in regions that have continued to benefit from job growth and in-migration. Early hints from months' supply of inventory, median days on market, and closed-to-original list price indicate the market is warming up again as we move into spring. For a deeper look at February's supply and demand signals in top SFR markets, read on.
NOTES ON THE DATA SET
Aggregate market data for the month in review (February 1-28) comes from 10 of our operating markets: Nashville, Charlotte, Atlanta, Birmingham, Huntsville, Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, Kansas City, and Greensboro. Inventory and price data include single-family residences, townhomes, and duplexes with 2+ bathrooms and 3+ bedrooms priced between $150-$500K.
February again saw fewer active listings than the prior month, continuing a decline that began in mid-October last year. This falls within the seasonally-adjusted norms, and according to last year’s data, the number of total active listings should begin to rise this month.
Months' supply of inventory dropped rapidly at the end of January, and all of our spotlight markets except Birmingham have continued to see a dramatic decline through February. (Nashville’s months of supply dropped from 5.67 on January 23 to 2.88 on February 27.)
Median days on market is still higher than last year (by almost 2x), but we are seeing a clear trend of decrease. All markets we have tracked have seen at least a 20% drop in DOM from the peak at the beginning of this year.
Though the closed-to-original list price ratio is still well below 100%, it's rising from its trough earlier this year.
Our team is here with the data you need to make your own assessment of this shifting landscape. For in-depth analysis or a complimentary strategy consultation, please reach out to Picket's Head of Business Growth, James Newgent.
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