Inventory Analysis

Custom report prepared for AMH

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Single-Family Detached Housing Inventory: Current vs. Historical Norms

This report examines single-family detached home inventory levels in the United States, comparing current figures to historical norms across national, state (Ohio, Georgia, Indiana), and metro (Cincinnati, OH; Savannah, GA; Indianapolis, IN) levels. We consider 5-year and 10-year horizons, including pre-pandemic vs. post-pandemic contexts, and differentiate between existing-home inventory and newly built home inventory. All data are from reputable sources (U.S. Census Bureau, NAR, Federal Reserve/FRED, etc.), with citations provided.

Current Inventory vs. Historical (5-Year & 10-Year): The U.S. housing market is experiencing significantly lower inventory of single-family homes for sale compared to historical norms. As of late 2024, there were roughly 0.87 million active single-family listings nationwide (Dec 2024) – about 15–20% below the levels just before the pandemic (Dec 2019)​ resiclubanalytics.com resiclubanalytics.com. In December 2019 (pre-pandemic), active listings were about 1.03 millionresiclubanalytics.com. Five years prior (2014), inventory was even higher: for example, in November 2014 there were 2.09 million existing homes on the market (around 5.1 months’ supply)​ businessinsider.com, indicating that current inventory is less than half of what was typical a decade ago. In early 2019 – a period already considered “historically low” for inventory – about 1.67 million homes were on the market in March 2019​ jchs.harvard.edu. Today’s ~870,000 active listings remain well below that level, underscoring a persistent supply shortage.

Pre-Pandemic vs. Post-Pandemic: The COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–2021) saw a historic collapse in inventory as low interest rates and soaring demand led to rapid sales. National active listings fell from just over 1 million in late 2019 to roughly 445,000 by December 2021, an all-time low​ resiclubanalytics.com. Although inventory has rebounded since that trough (rising ~30% from late 2021 to late 2024​ resiclubanalytics.comresiclubanalytics.com), it remains ~15% below pre-pandemic levels nationally​ resiclubanalytics.com. In other words, despite recent increases, the post-pandemic market still has significantly fewer homes for sale than the “normal” pre-2020 market.

Months’ Supply: In terms of months’ supply (which adjusts for the pace of sales), the national market is still tight. As of December 2024, there was about 3.3 months’ supply of existing homes for sale​ nar.realtor. This is an improvement from the extreme lows of ~2 months’ supply during the 2021 pandemic housing boom, but it remains below the 5–6 months’ supply that is considered a balanced market. For reference, months’ supply was ~3.8 in 2019​ jchs.harvard.edu and around 5.1 in late 2014​ businessinsider.com. Thus, buyers today face much leaner inventories than five or ten years ago, indicating a tighter market.

Existing Homes vs. New Homes (National)

A key trend is the shift in inventory composition between existing (resale) homes and newly built homes:

  • Existing-Home Inventory: The number of unsold existing homes on the market remains near record lows. In early 2023 there were only about 970,000 existing homes for sale nationwide, down 42% from early 2019​ jchs.harvard.edu. Even as of late 2024, NAR reports total existing-home listings around 1.15 million (seasonally higher in Dec 2024)​ nar.realtor, which is still depressed relative to past norms. This chronic shortage is largely due to many homeowners hesitating to sell (often because they locked in low mortgage rates), resulting in historically low resale inventory. Indeed, existing home listings have barely budged from their pandemic lowsjchs.harvard.edu – for example, March 2023 inventory was only slightly above March 2022’s record through​ jchs.harvard.edu.
  • Newly Built Home Inventory: In contrast, new home inventory has grown. Homebuilders responded to strong demand and the lack of resale supply by constructing more homes, and some unsold new builds accumulated when interest rates rose. By Dec 2024, there were about 494,000 new single-family homes for sale (seasonally adjusted) nationwide​ fred.stlouisfed.org, up from ~321,000 in Dec 2019fred.stlouisfed.org – an increase of over 50%. The months’ supply of new houses has also risen: currently about 8.5 months at the end of 2024, compared to 5.5 months pre-pandemic​ fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org. This indicates that new home inventory is relatively plentiful now, even as existing home supply remains tight.
  • Share of Inventory – New vs. Existing: Due to these trends, newly built homes make up a much larger share of total homes for sale than they used to. In early 2023, nearly one-third of all single-family homes on the market were new construction, a four-decade high, up from a historical average of only ~14%​ jchs.harvard.edu. This is a direct result of existing-home listings being so scarce. Key takeaway: Buyers are increasingly turning to new homes because the resale market inventory is historically lowjchs.harvard.edujchs.harvard.edu. Builders have filled some of the gap, but at the national level total inventory is still below normal.

(Table 1 below summarizes the change in active listings from Dec 2019 to Dec 2024 for the nation, selected states, and metros.):

Region Dec 2019 Active Listings Dec 2024 Active Listings Change (2019–2024)
United States (National) 1,033,887​ resiclubanalytics.com 871,509​ resiclubanalytics.com **–15.7%**​ resiclubanalytics.com
Ohio (State) 26,214​ fred.stlouisfed.org 17,499​ fred.stlouisfed.org –33.2%
Georgia (State) 42,459​ fred.stlouisfed.org 38,652​ fred.stlouisfed.org –9.0%
Indiana (State) 16,637​ fred.stlouisfed.org 13,816​ fred.stlouisfed.org –17.0%
Cincinnati, OH (MSA) 4,577​ fred.stlouisfed.org 3,270​ fred.stlouisfed.org –28.6%
Savannah, GA (MSA) 2,328​ fred.stlouisfed.org 1,641​ fred.stlouisfed.org –29.5%
Indianapolis, IN (MSA) 5,134​ fred.stlouisfed.org 4,123​ fred.stlouisfed.org –19.7%

Sources: Realtor.com inventory data via St. Louis Fed FRED​ resiclubanalytics.comresiclubanalytics.com; U.S. Census Bureau (new home sales inventory)​ fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org; NAR© (existing home sales reports)​ nar.realtor.

At the state level, inventory trends mirror the national shortage, though the degree varies by state:

  • Ohio: Single-family home inventory in Ohio is substantially below historical norms. As shown in Table 1, Ohio had about 17.5k active listings in Dec 2024, down one-third from roughly 26k in Dec 2019fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org. This ~33% drop indicates far fewer homes on the market than five years ago. Compared to a decade ago, the decline is even starker (Ohio’s inventory in mid-2010s was higher, consistent with national trends). Overall, Ohio’s for-sale inventory remains very tight in the post-pandemic era.
  • Georgia: Georgia’s inventory has also declined since pre-pandemic times, but not as dramatically as in many Midwestern or Northern states. Georgia had about 38.7k listings in Dec 2024 vs 42.5k in Dec 2019fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org – only about a 9% drop. This relatively smaller decline suggests that Georgia’s market has recovered more inventory than the national average (indeed, Georgia is approaching its pre-2020 inventory level). This aligns with regional trends where parts of the Sun Belt have seen inventory rebound closer to pre-pandemic levelsresiclubanalytics.com. However, Georgia’s current supply is still slightly below what it was 5–10 years ago, implying the market is still on the tighter side historically (just less severe than elsewhere).
  • Indiana: Indiana’s state-level inventory is significantly lower than historical norms. There were about 13.8k active listings in Dec 2024, down from roughly 16.6k in Dec 2019 (≈17% decrease)​ fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org. The shortage is more acute when compared to 10 years ago; Indiana (like much of the Midwest) had considerably more homes on the market in the early-to-mid 2010s. The post-2020 environment in Indiana is defined by scarce inventory, high demand, and fast sales for the limited homes available.

State-Level Takeaway: All three states remain below their historical inventory norms, especially relative to the mid-2010s. Georgia stands out for having nearly regained its pre-pandemic inventory (only a single-digit percent deficit), whereas Ohio and Indiana are 20–30% below pre-pandemic levels. This indicates inventory tightness is most severe in the Midwest (Ohio/Indiana), while some relief is seen in parts of the South (Georgia) – consistent with analyses showing several Sun Belt states’ inventories have rebounded more strongly​ resiclubanalytics.comresiclubanalytics.com. Nonetheless, even in Georgia, supply has not fully returned to a typical pre-2020 baseline.

Metro Area Inventory Analysis (Cincinnati, Savannah, Indianapolis)

Focusing on specific Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) provides a granular view of local inventory conditions for single-family detached homes:

  • Cincinnati, OH MSA: The Cincinnati metro (which spans parts of Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana) is experiencing historically low inventory. Currently (~Dec 2024) there are only about 3,270 active listings in the Cincinnati MSA​ fred.stlouisfed.org, down roughly 29% from about **4,580 listings pre-pandemic (Dec 2019)**​ fred.stlouisfed.org. Over a 5-year horizon, the drop is nearly one-third. Relative to 10 years ago, the decline is likely even greater (though MSA-specific data from 2014 are not readily available, the national/regional context suggests higher inventory in 2014). Cincinnati’s inventory shortage reflects a broader Midwest pattern: one analysis noted that as of 2023, many Midwestern metros had 50–70% fewer listings than 2019jchs.harvard.edu. Cincinnati’s ~29% decline vs 2019, while severe, is a bit less extreme than some northern metros, but it still signifies a tight market. Buyers in Cincinnati have far fewer options today than in past years, keeping upward pressure on prices.
  • Savannah, GA MSA: The Savannah metro’s inventory is down sharply from pre-pandemic times, though similar to Cincinnati in magnitude. Savannah had about 1,640 active listings in Dec 2024fred.stlouisfed.org versus roughly 2,330 in Dec 2019fred.stlouisfed.org – a drop of ~30%. This indicates a significantly tighter supply post-pandemic. However, compared to many larger metros, Savannah’s recovery in inventory has been moderate; some Sun Belt metros (especially in Florida and the Mountain West) have seen inventory bounce back or even exceed 2019 levels​ resiclubanalytics.comresiclubanalytics.com, but Savannah is still well below its pre-2020 norm. Over a 10-year perspective, Savannah’s current for-sale inventory is likely much lower than the mid-2010s, reflecting statewide trends in Georgia (though Georgia’s overall drop was smaller, Savannah specifically has a 30% deficit). In summary, Savannah’s housing market remains constrained, with fewer homes available than in the past, contributing to a competitive market for buyers.
  • Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN MSA: The Indianapolis metro likewise shows lower inventory than historical norms, though its decline is somewhat less steep than Cincinnati or Savannah. Indianapolis has about 4,120 active listings as of Dec 2024fred.stlouisfed.org, roughly 20% below the ~5,130 listings in Dec 2019​ fred.stlouisfed.org. This 20% decline since pre-pandemic indicates a tight market, but not as dramatically tight as some other areas. In fact, Indiana state data (-17%) and Indy’s metro data (-20%) suggest the region has partially recovered inventory relative to the huge 2021 trough. It’s worth noting that during 2020–2021, Indianapolis saw one of the largest inventory contractions on record, so even a partial rebound still leaves it historically low. By longer-term standards, today’s ~4.1k listings are likely far below inventory levels in, say, 2015 (when interest rates were higher and buyer demand was cooler). Thus, Indianapolis’s inventory remains constrained, though the situation has improved from the absolute lows of the pandemic period. Buyers in Indianapolis will find more listings now than a year or two ago, but still fewer choices than in 2019 or any typical year in the prior decade.

Metro-Level Takeaway: All three MSAs – Cincinnati, Savannah, and Indianapolis – are experiencing inventory shortages compared to historical norms. Cincinnati and Savannah have roughly 30% fewer homes for sale than pre-pandemic, while Indianapolis has around 20% fewer. These deficits echo each area’s state-level trends (Ohio and Georgia had ~33% and ~9% drops at state level, respectively, and Indiana ~17%). Notably, none of these metros have returned to their 2019 inventory levels, illustrating the enduring effect of the pandemic housing disruption on local supply. The tightest conditions among the three appear to be in Savannah and Cincinnati (both ~30% below 2019), whereas Indianapolis, while still tight, has seen a bit more relief. In all cases, however, current inventory remains below the 5-year and 10-year norms, contributing to continued upward pressure on home prices and challenges for buyers.

  • Nationwide Scarcity: The U.S. housing market’s inventory of single-family detached homes is significantly below historical norms. National active listings are down ~16% from five years ago and roughly 50% lower than a decade ago​ resiclubanalytics.combusinessinsider.com. Months’ supply of existing homes (~3.3) remains under the long-term average.
  • Pandemic Impact: The pandemic housing boom slashed inventory to record lows by 2021. Pre vs. post-pandemic comparisons show that, despite some recovery, most markets have fewer homes for sale now than in 2019. Nationally we’re still about 15% below 2019 inventory​ resiclubanalytics.com, and many markets (especially in the Midwest/Northeast) are down 20–40%. This supply-demand imbalance post-pandemic has kept the market competitive.
  • Existing vs. New Home Dynamics: Existing-home (resale) inventory is historically low, as many homeowners stay put. In contrast, newly built home inventory has increased – new homes for sale are ~54% higher than pre-pandemic levels​ fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org. New construction now constitutes a much larger share of listings (about one-third of all homes on the market)​ jchs.harvard.edu. Buyers are increasingly reliant on new homes to find options, given the resale shortage​ jchs.harvard.edu.
  • Geographic Variations: Inventory shortages are broad-based but vary by region.
    • Georgia (and some Sun Belt markets) have seen a stronger rebound in listings (Georgia is only ~9% below 2019 levels), inching closer to normal​ fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org.
    • Ohio and Indiana remain deeply constrained (20–30% below 2019)​ fred.stlouisfed.orgfred.stlouisfed.org, reflecting especially tight conditions in the Midwest.
    • The selected MSAs show that even smaller and mid-sized markets like Cincinnati, Savannah, and Indianapolis have not recovered to pre-pandemic inventory, underscoring that the inventory crunch is not just a coastal or big-city phenomenon – it’s affecting a range of locales.
  • Outlook: The current inventory levels, when compared to 5-year and 10-year benchmarks, highlight a new normal of lower housing supply. Unless there is a surge in existing owners listing their homes or a significant boost in homebuilding beyond current levels, inventory is likely to remain below historic norms in the near termjchs.harvard.edu. Indeed, forecasts suggest only a gradual improvement; for instance, even if 2024’s pace of inventory growth continues, it would take until ~2026 to get back to 2018 levels nationally​ resiclubanalytics.com. Policy makers and industry watchers are closely monitoring these inventory trends, as sustained low supply coupled with steady demand can exacerbate affordability challenges.

Conclusion: In summary, the current single-family detached home inventory – nationally, and in Ohio, Georgia, Indiana, and the highlighted metros – is considerably lower than historical norms of 5–10 years ago. The pandemic accelerated a decline in existing-home listings, creating a market reliant on new construction to partly fill the gap. While some regions are seeing inventory improve from pandemic lows, the U.S. housing market as a whole remains undersupplied relative to buyer demand, a condition that marks a sharp departure from the more balanced inventories of the mid-2010s. These trends are clearly evidenced by data from sources such as the National Association of Realtors and U.S. Census Bureau, and are critical for understanding the ongoing housing affordability and market dynamics as we move forward​ jchs.harvard.edujchs.harvard.edu.